An asteroid measuring up to 100 meters in diameter holds a 1-in-83 probability of striking Earth on 22 December 2032. This potential threat has prompted the activation of global planetary defense protocols for the first time. "This marks a significant milestone," states Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency (ESA).
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was initially discovered on 27 December 2024 by an automated observatory in Chile focused on detecting asteroids. It now ranks at the forefront of ESA and NASA's list of impact threats, boasting a 1.3 percent likelihood of colliding with our planet in approximately seven years.
This collision risk, along with the asteroid's dimensions, assigns it a Torino scale rating of 3 out of 10, which is a system used to assess the possible harm from impacts by comets and asteroids. This indicates that it represents a "close approach" capable of causing "localized devastation."
The energy released upon impact could be comparable to nearly 8 million tons of TNT, according to NASA statistics, sufficient to obliterate a city. "This specific rating has never been allocated to any asteroid before," notes Moissl.
"A Torino scale of 3 provides us with a directive to undertake actions we wouldn’t typically pursue," he adds, such as enhancing surveillance. Acquiring data about the asteroid from more robust telescopes could yield a clearer understanding of its risk of colliding with Earth.
This could potentially lower the risk to zero, asserts Moissl. The asteroid Apophis, anticipated to pass close to Earth in 2029, was originally classified with a 4 on the Torino scale upon its detection in 2004.
After additional observations, the risk assessment was reduced to zero. This detection took place prior to the establishment of globally coordinated planetary defense measures and automated asteroid monitoring systems.
However, 2024 YR4 is receiving a different approach. Moissl indicates that a group associated with the UN, called the International Asteroid Warning Network, is investigating the asteroid’s path. An international collaboration referred to as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group has been notified about the asteroid and may start devising a proposal on how to avert a collision, such as deflecting the asteroid using a spacecraft, if that should become necessary.
Currently, the asteroid "does not present an immediate threat," comments Moissl. "But due to its unusual nature, it is something we should monitor closely."
~~ Bhautik Thummar
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